The competition for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay at the upcoming 98th Oscars ceremony is proving to be exceptionally challenging to forecast. With key industry indicators like the Writers Guild Awards and BAFTA nominations being revealed after the Oscar nominations themselves, analysts and voters are navigating an environment with an unprecedented lack of clear signals. This scarcity of early insights has amplified the influence of the BAFTA longlist, making it a disproportionately significant barometer for initial assumptions. While Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners' has gained momentum following its triumph at the Critics Choice Awards, several other strong contenders, both domestic and international, continue to vie for recognition, ensuring a suspenseful lead-up to the nominations.
The Enigmatic Race for Original Screenplay Honors
As the cinematic world approaches the 98th Academy Awards, the category for Best Original Screenplay has emerged as a particularly opaque and fiercely contested arena. On January 9, 2026, experts noted the unusual lack of definitive precursors typically relied upon for Oscar predictions. The delayed announcements of the Writers Guild Award nominations and BAFTA nominations mean that the customary industry signposts are absent. Consequently, the BAFTA longlist has become an unusually influential guide, highlighting films such as "Blue Moon," "A House of Dynamite," "I Swear," "Is This Thing On?," "It Was Just an Accident," "Marty Supreme," "The Secret Agent," "Sentimental Value," "Sinners," and "Weapons."
A pivotal moment occurred when Ryan Coogler's "Sinners" secured the Critics Choice Award for Original Screenplay. This win immediately propelled Coogler into a frontrunner position, marking his film as the most visible contender among a strong field that included works by Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer for "Jay Kelly," Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie for "Marty Supreme," Zach Cregger for "Weapons," Eva Victor for "Sorry, Baby," and Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier for "Sentimental Value."
Despite this clear signal, the absence of WGA insights leaves the collective sentiment of screenwriters largely unknown. Potential dark horses such as Kleber Mendonça Filho's "The Secret Agent" (boasting international prestige), Eva Victor's critically acclaimed "Sorry, Baby," and "Is This Thing On?" (co-written by Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, and Bradley Cooper, benefiting from high-profile names) continue to draw attention. "Jay Kelly" by Baumbach and Mortimer, despite not appearing on the BAFTA longlist, maintains significant industry respect.
The Golden Globes' combined screenplay category further illustrates the complexity, with "Sinners," "Marty Supreme," and "Sentimental Value" consistently appearing across various precursor lists. Jafar Panahi's Palme d'Or winner "It Was Just an Accident" also presents a strong international auteur presence, aligning with BAFTA's preferences but posing a challenge for broader Academy voter alignment.
The voting for nominations commenced on Monday, January 12, and concluded on Friday, January 16. The official nominees for the 98th Academy Awards are slated for announcement on Thursday, January 22. The grand ceremony itself will unfold on Sunday, March 15, at the iconic Dolby Theatre, broadcast live globally to over 200 territories via ABC.
The current landscape for the Best Original Screenplay Oscar is characterized by profound uncertainty, underscoring the subjective and fluid nature of awards season. This year's race challenges conventional prediction strategies, compelling both industry prognosticators and general audiences to rely more on intuition and personal conviction. It highlights how the shifting tides of critical acclaim and industry buzz can shape narratives, reminding us that even in the most data-driven analyses, a touch of personal passion often prevails. Ultimately, this unpredictable race enriches the conversation around screenwriting, celebrating the diverse artistry and storytelling that captivate audiences and inspire the film community.